With two of the Democratic Primaries history and the ever-important “Super Tuesday” coming up this week, things are not looking well for Howard Dean.
Before I go any further, I want to preface by saying that this piece was written before Tuesday’s primaries and while it is possible Howard Dean could make an astounding comeback, this is being written under the assumption that he won’t.
So with that in mind, I ask this question to Dr. Dean: what does the view from third place look like?
The race for the 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee could prove historic for several reasons. Of course we are going to have the candidate who is going to run against President Bush, but it could also be historic because we might just be witnessing the biggest rise of one candidate and then watching that same candidate fall off the election radar.
Of course I am referring to Howard Dean, and it seems like it was yesterday that his grassroots message was taking this country by storm. Actually, it might have been yesterday; his fall happened that quickly.
But the big question here is why? How did Dean go from having double-digit leads in Iowa and New Hampshire to losing by double digits to another candidate (John Kerry) whose campaign was almost forced to go back to Massachusetts wearing a toe tag because they were falling so far behind in the polls?
Many talking heads on news channels believe Dean’s collapse is due to his now-famous temper and that he just does not seem to know when to keep his mouth shut. I believe Howard Dean has been found out.
My point here is that Howard Dean has had to become part of the political mainstream to keep his campaign above water and at the same time that violates the principles that initially caused his candidacy to surge.
This is not to say that I dislike Dean himself because when I say Dean has been found out, I don’t mean to imply he hits people with his car for kicks during full moons. No, but he has been found out as not being able to beat President Bush and now it is clear that his campaign is at a very important crossroads.
The Democratic climate has changed from what it was in July and now most voters (at least in Iowa and New Hampshire) have moved away from the dynamic candidate (Dean) to someone with a better chance of winning in November (Kerry).
The popular opinion right now is that Dean was unelectable all along and now we are just seeing that. I do not agree with that. I do believe that at one point Howard Dean could have defeated Bush in November, but that moment may have passed. Once Dean became the front-runner, his campaign started feeling the barrage of attacks from other campaigns.
The Feb. 1 New York Times reports how ill-prepared the Dean campaign was to deflect or prevent these attacks for that matter.
“The tipping point came on Jan. 8, when “NBC Nightly News” broadcast a tape of Dr. Dean, from four years before, criticizing the Iowa caucuses on which he was now relying to vault him to the nomination. Aides wondered how their own research department had missed this minefield. His Iowa poll numbers dropped 10 points overnight.”
This is in contrast to how John Kerry’s campaign has been able to react to attacks on their campaign since Kerry became the front-runner. The week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, attacks were made from the other candidates, but Kerry’s campaign was ready to stop these attacks from doing serious harm. As a result, Kerry won New Hampshire decisively; Dean came in a distant third, practically tied with John Edwards.
Dean’s message also seems a bit muddled because while he has continually derided Washington and its corruption, he seems to contradict himself by allowing Al Gore to endorse him. Gore, who for many years took money from big tobacco, seems to contradict Dean’s message of getting away from special interests.
As the campaign goes on, the people are learning more and more about Howard Dean. He is not not nearly as progressive as another presidential candidate, Dennis Kucinch, nor is he as progressive as Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold or the late Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone.
So while Dean is still quite liberal, it should say something that progressives are not jumping through hoops for Howard Dean. Also, Dean has not been able to turn angry into the Zen-like art that John McCain was able to do in 2000 and as a result, Dean’s yelling is drowning out his message.
So it’s the bottom of the ninth, two outs, Dean needs to hit a homerun. Can he reclaim his past momentum? Probably not, but can he make a comeback that would make Lazarus jealous? The honest answer is: I don’t know. But I certainly would not put anything out of the realm of possibility at this point.