In the uncertain hours before the 2004 Presidential Election was handed to George W. Bush, Warren Mitofsky, the inventor of the exit poll, saw his brain-child indicate a win for John Kerry.
Warren Mitofsky, Guilford class of ’57, died at age 71 of a heart aneurism on September 1. He was the father of two children, Grandfather of four, and the inventor of exit polls.
Mitofsky’s polling results have been used throughout the democratic world as a means of accurately predicting the outcome of any given election before the official ballot count is in.
On August 31, the day before his death, Mitofsky seemed to be going strong and looking towards the future as he indicated to Guilford’s Richie Zweigenhaft, Professor of Psychology.
“I sent out a mass email to all of the Guilford’s Psychology Alumni, inviting them to attend the homecoming open-house,” said Zweigenhaft. “Among the barrage of responses was one from Mitofsky.”
“I plan to be at homecoming and will be sure to come by and see the new quarters for the psychology department,” wrote Mitofsky. “The department seems to have grown a bit since Ernestine Milner was the only teacher in my day.”
During his time at Guilford, Mitofsky majored in psychology. He went on to work for the Census Bureau where he pioneered the use of random telephone polling. After working for the Census Bureau, Mitofsky worked for CBS, conducting thousands of exit polls, and creating a virtually flawless record.
Mitofsky, known for his meticulous, honest, and hard driving nature throughout his career as the executive director of CBS News election and survey unit from 1967 until 1990, came a long way since his days with Guilford’s tiny psychology department.
Mitofsky possessed an unwavering commitment to accuracy. In his 23 years with CBS he could brag that he called 2,500 elections correctly and only miss-called six.
The 2004 elections inconsistencies placed Mitofsky in an awkward situation where he had to argue for the inaccuracy of his own method. The fact that the exit polls indicated a different result than the official count delivered, incited many angry accusations of election fraud that Mitofsky found himself in the midst of.
“I just don’t believe in conspiracies. I’m much more a believer in something practical, like incompetence,” said Mitofsky when asked about the 2004 election.
Exit polling is a practice that surveys voters as they leave the polling place, selecting individuals at pre-determined intervals. For instance, an exit poll may ask every fifth voter who leaves the voting booth which candidate he or she voted for. This would provide the media with a fairly accurate portrayal of which way the election would swing.
“As well as providing the public with election results before the official count, exit polls have made it more possible for the public to keep candidates honest,” said Jesse Seitel, Senior History and Political Science major. “If an exit poll indicates that one candidate held the election, but the official count shows the other candidate to have won by a landslide, there is clearly something wrong with the exit polls or the official count.”
After the momentous occasion of the 2004 election, Mitofsky was interviewed by Richard Morin of the Washington Post. When Morin asked about the verbal attacks on him after the Bush victory, Mitofsky seemed to exude ambivalence about the event.
“Your credibility is the most important attribute that you have in doing public work,” said Mitofsky. “I work for networks, I work for the AP and I’m concerned about my clients. But I’m more concerned about my own credibility and I don’t care to tarnish it to help them.”
Mitofsky never lost his credibility; his record remained virtually flawless, even to the end. His last election was the hotly contested 2006 Mexican election which he called consistent with the official results.